A Historical Look at the Causes and Reactions to the Conflict

In the months leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there was widespread debate about whether the war was truly inevitable. For three months, experts were divided on whether Vladimir Putin’s aggressive stance was a bluff or a prelude to conflict. Some analysts warned of invasion based on the massive troop buildup near Ukraine’s borders, while others dismissed the idea, pointing out the lack of war hysteria in Russian media.

This uncertainty ended abruptly on February 24, when Russian missiles struck military and civilian targets in Ukraine, and Russian forces crossed the border. The aftermath sparked debates about the motives behind Putin’s decision—was it driven by paranoia over NATO expansion, a desire to revive the Russian Empire, or something more complex rooted in historical ambitions?

The article reflects on a visit to Moscow in January, where despite rising tensions and a repressive political climate, few thought war was imminent. The tragic escalation left many questioning the long-term causes of the conflict and the unpredictable nature of global politics.