Changing Expectations of Summer Weather Amidst Record Heatwaves

The British summer of 2024, though statistically average, felt underwhelming to many, with damp and less-than-ideal conditions. However, this perception contrasts with the scorching temperatures of recent years, particularly in the 2020s. According to Helen Roberts, a socio-meteorologist with the Met Office, extreme heat events such as those in 2022 and the prolonged heat of the 2020 lockdown have shifted public expectations. These heatwaves create a psychological effect known as “recency bias,” where people expect weather extremes based on recent experiences.

Roberts also notes the “availability heuristic,” where memories of recent events become the lens through which we evaluate present weather, overshadowing more typical summers. The notorious heatwave of 1976, which saw roads melting and reservoirs drying up, left a lasting cultural imprint. However, the memories of such extremes often eclipse those of more ordinary summers, altering perceptions of what is considered normal.