Ukraine’s prospects, Russian sentiment, and the role of Western support will shape the course of the conflict.

As the war in Ukraine enters its second year, there are growing concerns that the conflict may not end anytime soon. While Ukraine has made significant strides in defending its sovereignty, challenges lie ahead—both on the battlefield and politically, as divergent interests among Western allies and internal pressures within Russia emerge. Experts offer their insights into what to expect in 2023 and beyond.

Emma Ashford’s Perspective:
Ashford, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, discusses how the political will in the West may wane as the conflict drags on, particularly in the United States. Although Ukraine has successfully protected its sovereignty and reclaimed some territories, the growing costs and risks of escalation could lead to increasing public dissatisfaction. The mismatch between political time horizons and military goals is a concern, with some polling suggesting that the US may not be willing to continue its heavy involvement in the war.

While Ukraine’s resilience is undeniable, Ashford argues that the longer the war continues, the harder it may become for Ukraine to sustain support from the West, especially if military gains remain limited. The US public’s growing discontent could turn the war into a key issue in the upcoming 2024 presidential campaign.

Timothy Garton Ash’s Take:
Garton Ash, a renowned historian, argues that 2023 could be a pivotal year for Ukraine, especially with the planned spring counteroffensive. The Ukrainian forces are aiming to push south from the Zaporizhzhia region towards the Sea of Azov, with the potential to cut Russian forces in two and threaten Crimea. If successful, this counteroffensive could reshape the war’s dynamics, offering Ukraine the opportunity to negotiate from a position of strength.

However, the situation is precarious. Russia still holds the strategic initiative in the east, and Ukrainian forces are facing shortages of ammunition for their older Soviet-era weapons. The success of the spring offensive will depend heavily on the speed and effectiveness of Western military and economic support, with Garton Ash stressing that any delay could play into Putin’s hands.

Conclusion:
2023 will likely be a defining year for the war in Ukraine, with the outcome hinging on military developments, Western support, and internal dynamics within Russia. While Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience, the clock is ticking, and time may not be on its side. The balance of power could shift dramatically depending on the success of key military campaigns and the political will to continue supporting Ukraine’s fight for sovereignty.