Organization’s Early Forecast Signals Continued Oil Consumption Growth for the Next Two Decades

On January 17, 2024, OPEC issued its forecast for 2025, predicting robust growth in global oil demand, with an expected increase of 1.85 million barrels per day (bpd), reaching 106.21 million bpd. This forecast aligns with OPEC’s long-term outlook, which expects oil consumption to continue rising for the next two decades. The growth is expected to be led primarily by China and the Middle East.

OPEC’s projection for 2025 comes earlier than usual, as the organization aims to provide long-term market guidance. Traditionally, such forecasts would have been released in July 2024. However, OPEC chose to release the 2025 forecast ahead of schedule to offer insights into future market trends.

In its monthly report, OPEC maintained its 2024 demand growth forecast at 2.25 million bpd, unchanged from the previous month’s estimate. Despite this positive outlook, oil prices have started 2024 on a weak note, with Brent crude trading around $77 a barrel, down nearly 2%. This decline in prices is attributed to market uncertainty, which has counterbalanced the effect of OPEC’s recent supply cuts.

While OPEC’s view stands in contrast to that of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which expects global oil demand to peak by 2030 due to the transition to cleaner energy sources, OPEC remains confident that oil consumption will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

OPEC’s early forecast for 2025 marks a shift in its usual reporting schedule, signaling the organization’s intent to offer more forward-looking perspectives on the evolving dynamics of the global oil market.