Indonesia’s 2024 Election Could Shape Economic and Security Ties with Australia, Regardless of Who Wins

As Indonesia heads to the polls in February 2024, the country is on the cusp of electing a new leader following the end of President Joko Widodo’s (Jokowi) two-term presidency. The race is tight, with Prabowo Subianto, the current defense minister, leading in the polls. He is running alongside Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of Jokowi, as his vice-presidential candidate. This election will significantly impact Indonesia’s domestic policies, but it will also have broader ramifications for Australia, which has been working to strengthen its ties with its Southeast Asian neighbor.

Indonesia is one of Australia’s most crucial partners in the Indo-Pacific region, especially when it comes to regional security and trade. For Australia, Indonesia’s strategic importance cannot be overstated. The two countries are close allies, cooperating in areas such as counterterrorism, intelligence sharing, and economic growth. In the face of growing geopolitical tensions, particularly with China’s rising influence, Indonesia remains an essential partner for Australia in maintaining stability across the Indo-Pacific.

Prabowo Subianto’s presidency could maintain Indonesia’s non-alignment foreign policy, which historically balances relations with China, the United States, and Australia. This neutrality is a cornerstone of Indonesia’s diplomatic approach, and it is expected to continue under Prabowo’s leadership. For Australia, this could mean ongoing security collaboration, which is critical for managing regional threats, including maritime disputes in the South China Sea.

Economically, both nations stand to benefit from expanded trade relations. With Indonesia’s growing middle class, Australian businesses may find new opportunities in sectors such as mining, renewable energy, and agriculture. The new Indonesian leadership may also prioritize domestic economic reforms, potentially offering more favorable conditions for foreign investment, which would benefit both economies.

In conclusion, the outcome of Indonesia’s election will influence not only the country’s internal development but also its relationship with Australia. Regardless of who wins, Australia’s foreign policy towards Indonesia will likely remain focused on security cooperation and economic collaboration, essential elements that will help both nations navigate an increasingly complex and interconnected region.