Success in recapturing territory could lead to a ceasefire, but both sides are entrenched in a long, costly conflict.

As Ukraine’s highly anticipated spring counter-offensive unfolds, the war’s trajectory could hinge on the outcome of this crucial phase. Ukraine’s forces are attempting to reclaim occupied territories, but despite some success, Russia’s larger forces remain well-entrenched behind fortified positions, including minefields, tank traps, and defensive lines in Donbas and Crimea.

The situation suggests a likely bloody stalemate rather than a decisive victory. By autumn, it may become evident that Ukraine’s military gains will not result in the complete liberation of its territories. Russia, despite suffering significant losses, remains in control of key regions. Ukrainian forces, on the other hand, are facing critical shortages in manpower, weapons, and equipment, which are putting a strain on their ability to continue mounting large-scale offensives.

As the battlefield becomes increasingly costly for both sides, Kyiv’s Western allies may begin to shift towards diplomacy. The prospect of a negotiated ceasefire or a “durable truce” will become more appealing to avoid an endless war of attrition. This shift could be bolstered by China’s growing influence in the international arena, which may push for a diplomatic resolution.

Despite Ukraine’s desire to reclaim its pre-2014 borders, President Zelenskiy may be forced to consider a temporary pause in military operations, especially if the situation reaches a point of unsustainable conflict. For now, it seems that a fragile truce, contingent on difficult compromises, is increasingly likely. As Moscow continues to assert its control over the four regions annexed last year, Vladimir Putin may seek to frame any ceasefire as a strategic success, while Ukraine navigates the delicate balance of defending its sovereignty and managing the toll of war.