Political divisions, electoral disputes, and social unrest place the nation in precarious territory, says political science professor

The United States is “closer to civil war than many would like to admit,” according to Barbara F. Walter, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego, and member of the Political Instability Task Force. In her upcoming book, How Civil Wars Start, Walter argues that deepening political divisions and a weakening democracy have pushed the country into “dangerous territory.”

Walter’s analysis, first reported by The Washington Post, draws on global frameworks typically used to predict instability in other nations. She notes that if the U.S. were assessed like countries such as Ukraine or Venezuela, it would exhibit numerous risk factors associated with civil conflict. According to Walter, the nation has transitioned from “pre-insurgency” and “incipient conflict” stages into what could be described as “open conflict,” marked by events like the January 6 Capitol attack.

Other experts echo these concerns. Three retired generals expressed alarm in an op-ed for The Washington Post, warning of potential chaos following the 2024 presidential election, including within the U.S. military. Such fears stem from the fallout of former President Donald Trump’s refusal to accept the 2020 election results, which fueled the Capitol riot and subsequent legislative efforts to restrict voting access and challenge election outcomes.

Walter describes the U.S. as an “anocracy,” a hybrid state between democracy and autocracy, as outlined by the Center for Systemic Peace. She highlights the compounding effects of political polarization, economic disparities, and resistance to government policies during the pandemic.

The last U.S. civil war, fought from 1861 to 1865, resulted in an estimated 620,000 deaths. Adjusted for today’s population, this figure would equate to nearly 6 million. Unlike 1861, when election results were accepted as legitimate despite severe disagreements, today’s challenges include widespread distrust and disinformation, raising concerns about the durability of American democracy.